The Future of Hunting and Fishing: A New Vision

The bulk of recruitment, retention and reactivation (R3) efforts throughout the United States in the past decade have focused on the continuous R3 of hunters and anglers at a time when the percentage of participants per capita continues to fluctuate and decrease, creating long-term concerns for the viability of these outdoor pursuits and the conservation outcomes tied to their participants. Research going back as far as 1990 in previous iterations of the Future of Hunting and Fishing project (Chase, 2012; Chase, 2017; Chase & Dunfee, 2022) identified a distinct Committed Cohort—currently in their late-50s and early 60s—that has exhibited higher than average rates of participation in hunting activities, regardless of temporal context or life stage. However, this cohort is now aging into a stage of life where physical limitations, fiscal constraints, and shifting responsibilities associated with retirement may preclude active engagement in outdoor recreation. Consequently, a gradual decline in national participation is anticipated, but analysis of reliable data sourced directly from state fish and wildlife agencies (SFWAs) is critically needed to document the validity of this prediction and to illuminate other trends that may be emerging in, and predictive of, hunter and angler population dynamics. The Future of Hunting and Fishing: A New Vision represents a five-year reassessment of national trends in hunting and fishing, which will allow the national R3 community to compare the specific state-wide and national license purchasing behavior over the past 25 years. Due to its reliance on actual license and customer data sourced directly from SFWAs, this study, like its previous iterations, will yield the most reliable historical and future projections of American hunting and angling participation of any similar study or license data dashboard currently available. Since the previous study period, completed in 2021, SFWA and R3-vested organization efforts have continued to focus on R3 and have expanded both in scope and effectiveness, potentially altering the trajectory of participation. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic catalyzed a temporary increase in outdoor recreation, as individuals sought socially distanced activities and reconnected with nature. These and other trends need to be documented and understood to ensure that the national R3 community directs its efforts toward emerging opportunities and avoids wasting finite resources and effort on unimpactful initiatives. This study proposes conducting an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis utilizing data from a broad sample of state fish and wildlife agencies. The goal is to assess the extent to which contemporary developments, such as intensified R3 initiatives, pandemic-related behavioral shifts, and generational shifts have influenced participation trends and whether earlier forecasts, including the projected gradual decrease in participation by the Committed Cohort, remain valid. This iteration of this ongoing longitudinal study is particularly necessary as the leading edge of the Committed Cohort was predicted to start decreasing activity in 2024. Furthermore, the study will capitalize on recent advancements in data science to extract new insights. The findings will offer critical guidance to all SFWAs and R3-vested organizations, supporting informed decisions in strategic planning for declining participants and subsequent needs for adaptable resource management.

Fiscal Year
2026
Organization
Wildlife Management Institute, Inc.
Grant Number
F26AP00223
Categories
Human Dimensions, R3, Research
R3
Yes